Fleetwood Town
vs
Rotherham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Rotherham
The model makes it 37% Fleetwood Town, 31% draw, 32% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.28, Rotherham 1.10.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town are 14th on 10 points from 8 games; Rotherham are 13th on 10 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Fleetwood Town are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Rochdale.
- Rotherham are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Crewe.
- Last 5 meetings: Fleetwood Town 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 August 2024, ended Fleetwood Town 2–1 Rotherham.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham
Fleetwood Town
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
- W2-0Shrewsbury5 September 2026
- D1-1Oldham1 September 2026
Rotherham
- D1-1Crewe26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton19 September 2026
- D3-3Salford City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Tranmere1 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Fleetwood Town | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham
- 27 August 2024Fleetwood Town 2–1 RotherhamLeague Cup
- 7 July 2022Rotherham 2–0 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
- 7 July 2022Fleetwood Town 0–2 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs
- 15 January 2022Fleetwood Town 1–0 RotherhamLeague One
- 11 September 2021Rotherham 2–4 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rotherham
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Rotherham
- P. Mullin4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.14 for Rotherham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.10 for Rotherham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.45 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rotherham rate 0.47 and 1.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rotherham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 1% chance of the title and Rotherham 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.10 for Rotherham. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.95 for Rotherham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleetwood Town at home · Rotherham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Fleetwood Town 8, Rotherham 8.
Fleetwood Town score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Rotherham have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fleetwood Town
- at Cheltenham20 Oct · League Twowin 32%
- at Exeter City24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Bristol Rovers31 Oct · League Twowin 36%
Rotherham
- vs Newport County20 Oct · League Twowin 43%
- vs Shrewsbury24 Oct · League Twowin 46%
- at Swindon Town31 Oct · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.