CF Montreal vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: CF Montreal 2-2 New England Revolution.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% CF Montreal, 23% draw, 28% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Montreal at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Montreal vs New England Revolution
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sebastian BrezaG
- 27Dawid BugajD
- 24Efraín MoralesD
- 4Brayan VeraD
- 13Luca PetrassoD
- 8Matthew LongstaffM
- 7Daniel PereiraM
- 22Victor LoturiM
- 18Hennadii SynchukF
- 9Prince OwusuF
- 14Daniel RiosF
- 29Olger EscobarF
- 21Fabian HerbersF
- 5Brandan CraigD
- 6Samuel PietteM
- 41Samsy KeitaG
- 2Jalen NealD
- 23Noah StreitM
- 26Ivan LosenkoM
- 30Matt TurnerG
- 8Matt PolsterD
- 22Ethan KohlerD
- 2Mamadou FofanaD
- 23William SandsD
- 21Brooklyn RainesM
- 80Alhassan YusufM
- 25Peyton MillerM
- 10Carles GilM
- 17Marcos ZambranoM
- 99Dor TurgemanF
- 41Luca LangoniF
- 15Cody BakerD
- 27Wilson HarrisF
- 14Jackson YueillM
- 7Griffin YowF
- 73JD GunnG
- 4Tanner BeasonD
- 38Eric KleinM
- 77Diego FagúndezM
Form going into CF Montreal vs New England Revolution
CF Montreal
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Inter Miami25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC23 July 2026
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026
- D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 25 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs New England Revolution
- 4 April 2026New England Revolution 3–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2026New England Revolution 1–2 CF MontrealFriendlies Clubs
- 25 July 2025New England Revolution 1–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025CF Montreal 0–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2024New England Revolution 2–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and New England Revolution
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 54 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CF Montreal and New England Revolution drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Montreal at 49% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Gil (penalty) 30' for New England Revolution, D. Turgeman 36' for New England Revolution, B. Vera 52' for CF Montreal, P. Owusu 59' for CF Montreal. On expected goals it finished 0.86–4.03.