1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time2 – 2

Final score: CF Montreal 2-2 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% CF Montreal, 23% draw, 28% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Montreal at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Montreal5%Draw91%New England Revolution4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽C. Gil (pen)
36'
⚽D. Turgemanassist: P. Miller
S. Breza
36'
🔁M. Longstaffout: O. Escobar
46'
⚽B. Veraassist: E. Morales
52'
56'
🔁M. Zambranoout: L. Langoni
⚽P. Owusuassist: L. Petrasso
59'
🔁D. Riosout: F. Herbers
71'
73'
🔁M. Polsterout: C. Baker
73'
🔁D. Turgemanout: W. Harris
🔁V. Loturiout: B. Craig
85'
🔁G. Synchukout: S. Piette
85'
86'
🔁P. Millerout: G. Yow
86'
🔁A. Yusufout: J. Yueill

Match stats — CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

46%Possession54%
15Shots21
8On target5
6Corners3
0.86xG4.03

Goals against chances

CF Montreal2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
New England Revolution2 from 4.03 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Montreal 4-3-3
  • 1Sebastian BrezaG
  • 27Dawid BugajD
  • 24Efraín MoralesD
  • 4Brayan VeraD
  • 13Luca PetrassoD
  • 8Matthew LongstaffM
  • 7Daniel PereiraM
  • 22Victor LoturiM
  • 18Hennadii SynchukF
  • 9Prince OwusuF
  • 14Daniel RiosF
Substitutes
  • 29Olger EscobarF
  • 21Fabian HerbersF
  • 5Brandan CraigD
  • 6Samuel PietteM
  • 41Samsy KeitaG
  • 2Jalen NealD
  • 23Noah StreitM
  • 26Ivan LosenkoM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
  • 30Matt TurnerG
  • 8Matt PolsterD
  • 22Ethan KohlerD
  • 2Mamadou FofanaD
  • 23William SandsD
  • 21Brooklyn RainesM
  • 80Alhassan YusufM
  • 25Peyton MillerM
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 17Marcos ZambranoM
  • 99Dor TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 41Luca LangoniF
  • 15Cody BakerD
  • 27Wilson HarrisF
  • 14Jackson YueillM
  • 7Griffin YowF
  • 73JD GunnG
  • 4Tanner BeasonD
  • 38Eric KleinM
  • 77Diego FagúndezM
Coach: Marko Mitrovic

Form going into CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

CF Montreal

  • L0-1Inter Miami25 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Nashville SC23 July 2026

New England Revolution

  • W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026
  • D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs New England Revolution

  • 1 August 2026CF Montreal 2–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 4 April 2026New England Revolution 3–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 7 February 2026New England Revolution 1–2 CF MontrealFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 July 2025New England Revolution 1–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 31 May 2025CF Montreal 0–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2024New England Revolution 2–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and New England Revolution

CF Montreal

  • P. Owusu13 goals6 assists

New England Revolution

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.