New York City FC
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York City FC 1–0 Los Angeles FC
The model makes it 37% New York City FC, 30% draw, 33% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.27, Los Angeles FC 1.16.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- New York City FC are 9th in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 33 points from 27 games; Los Angeles FC are 6th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 41 points from 28 games.
- New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Atlanta United FC.
- Los Angeles FC are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Dallas.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
New York City FC
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
Los Angeles FC
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York City FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 33 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- 8 February 2026Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 2 March 2025Los Angeles FC 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 January 2023Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 28 January 2023New York City FC 1–1 Los Angeles FCFriendlies Clubs
- 29 May 2021Los Angeles FC 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2019New York City FC 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Los Angeles FC
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga14 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York City FC carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.62 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for New York City FC and 1.16 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York City FC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for New York City FC against 1.16 for Los Angeles FC. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.09 for Los Angeles FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York City FC at home · Los Angeles FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York City FC 27, Los Angeles FC 28.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 4 there.
Los Angeles FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); New York City FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
New York City FC
- at Orlando City SC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 35%
- vs Atlanta United FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs CF Montreal31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
Los Angeles FC
- vs Los Angeles Galaxy26 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
- vs Minnesota United FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Seattle Sounders8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.