Philadelphia Union
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Philadelphia Union 2–1 Charlotte
The model makes it 46% Philadelphia Union, 26% draw, 28% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.13, Charlotte 1.42.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union are 6th on 39 points from 27 games; Charlotte are 4th on 43 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Orlando City SC.
- Charlotte have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlotte 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Charlotte 2–1 Philadelphia Union.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
Charlotte
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 39 |
| 4 | Charlotte | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
- 4 April 2026Charlotte 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Charlotte 2–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 14 June 2025Philadelphia Union 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 28 July 2024Philadelphia Union 1–0 CharlotteLeagues Cup
- 22 June 2024Philadelphia Union 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2024Charlotte 0–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski16 goals2 assists
Charlotte
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Philadelphia Union carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.58 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.42 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Philadelphia Union rate 0.92 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.74 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.42 for Charlotte. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.27 for Charlotte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Philadelphia Union at home · Charlotte away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Philadelphia Union 27, Charlotte 27.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (15 goals); Charlotte have let in 4 there.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Philadelphia Union
- vs New England Revolution24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
- at Nashville SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- at FC Cincinnati31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
Charlotte
- at Portland Timbers25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs CF Montreal28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
- vs Orlando City SC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.