New York Red Bulls
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FC
The model makes it 37% New York Red Bulls, 29% draw, 34% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.44, Toronto FC 1.36.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- New York Red Bulls are 8th on 33 points from 27 games; Toronto FC are 13th on 29 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to St. Louis City.
- Toronto FC are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Nashville SC.
- Last 6 meetings: New York Red Bulls 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
Toronto FC
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
- D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 33 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
- 14 March 2026Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 25 June 2025Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 28 July 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
- 22 June 2024New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.43 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.36 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 0.53 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.64 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.36 for Toronto FC. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.49 for Toronto FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York Red Bulls at home · Toronto FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York Red Bulls 27, Toronto FC 27.
New York Red Bulls score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Toronto FC have let in 13 there.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); New York Red Bulls have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
New York Red Bulls
- vs Inter Miami24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- at New England Revolution28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 24%
- at Nashville SC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 17%
Toronto FC
- at Columbus Crew24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs DC United28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Atlanta United FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.