Minnesota United FC
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 1–2 St. Louis City
The model makes it 33% Minnesota United FC, 26% draw, 41% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.67, St. Louis City 2.01.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Minnesota United FC are 14th on 29 points from 27 games; St. Louis City are 2nd on 47 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Minnesota United FC have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to New York Red Bulls.
- Last 5 meetings: Minnesota United FC 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
St. Louis City
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- 13 September 2026St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah14 goals2 assists
St. Louis City
- Rafael Navarro15 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.62 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Minnesota United FC and 2.01 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.83 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Minnesota United FC a 0% chance of the title and St. Louis City 15.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 2.01 for St. Louis City. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.31 for St. Louis City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Minnesota United FC at home · St. Louis City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Minnesota United FC 27, St. Louis City 27.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); St. Louis City have let in 7 there.
St. Louis City score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Minnesota United FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Minnesota United FC
- at Houston Dynamo25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- vs Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Los Angeles FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 25%
St. Louis City
- at Real Salt Lake25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- vs Portland Timbers29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs San Diego31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.