17 July 2026

Necaxa vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Full time2 – 1

Final score: Necaxa 2-1 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Necaxa, 23% draw, 20% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Necaxa at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Danny Leyva
35'
Raúl Martínez
42'
47'
⚽E. Pizzutoassist: L. Calzadilla
🔁A. Oliverosout: F. Mendez
54'
🔁C. Vargasout: E. Rodriguez
54'
64'
🔁A. Escobarout: W. Clar
🔁J. P. Torres Patinoout: R. Cortez
66'
69'
Nicolas Carrera
72'
🔁L. Calzadillaout: L. Mejia
72'
🔁E. Pizzutoout: D. Gonzalez
⚽J. Carranza (pen)
80'
🔁L. Faravelliout: M. Pedroza
81'
83'
🔁L. Puenteout: J. Charcopa
83'
🔁E. Terceroout: A. Padilla
86'
Walter Portales
•Miguel Pedroza
90+7'
⚽M. Pedrozaassist: J. Carranza
90'

Match stats — Necaxa vs Atlante FC

64%Possession36%
11Shots12
5On target3
11Corners5
2.39xG0.6

Goals against chances

Necaxa2 from 2.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atlante FC1 from 0.60 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 3-4-2-1
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 30R. MonrealM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 88C. VargasM
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoF
  • 10J. RuizF
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 2E. MartinezD
  • 27M. PedrozaF
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 21M. EspindolaM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
  • 20F. MendezD
Coach: Martin Varini
Atlante FC 5-3-2
  • 1O. JimenezG
  • 29W. PortalesD
  • 6J. N. CarreraD
  • 4E. TerceroD
  • 3L. SanchezD
  • 27A. EscobarD
  • 8E. PizzutoM
  • 25M. FernandezM
  • 19L. CalzadillaM
  • 9L. PuenteF
  • 7Jhojan JulioF
Substitutes
  • 22R. BarraganG
  • 37W. ClarD
  • 15J. CharcopaF
  • 13M. Garcia PardoM
  • 23A. PadillaD
  • 21J. IbarraM
  • 20G. AdameM
  • 17L. MejiaM
  • 16D. Gonzalez
Coach: Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Necaxa8224913-48
15Atlante FC8143712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Atlante FC

  • 17 July 2026Necaxa 2–1 Atlante FCLiga MX

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Atlante FC

Necaxa

  • J. Carranza4 goals1 assists

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.