17 July 2026

Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result

Full time3 – 1

Final score: Club Tijuana 3-1 Tigres UANL.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Club Tijuana, 23% draw, 16% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Tijuana at 61% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁I. Riveroout: A. Zapata
17'
⚽R. Arcigaassist: Y. Padilla
32'
45+1'
Rodrigo Aguirre
45'
•Rodrigo Aguirre
56'
⚽O. Herreraassist: Joaquim
🔁P. N. Ortiz Orozcoout: A. Vega
65'
🔁Y. Padillaout: A. Perez
65'
🔁D. Abreuout: M. El Ghezouani
65'
Adonis Preciado
69'
Jackson Porozo
69'
69'
Vladimir Loroña
69'
Fernando Gorriarán
🔁R. Fernandezout: F. Boya
74'
74'
🔁V. Loronaout: F. I. Ordonez Delgado
83'
🔁D. Lainezout: D. A. Sanchez Guevara
83'
🔁O. Herreraout: J. Vigon
84'
Nahuel Guzmán
90+5'
Juan Vigón
⚽M. El Ghezouani (pen)
90'
⚽M. El Ghezouani
90'

Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL

51%Possession49%
14Shots8
7On target4
1Corners4
2.01xG0.61

Goals against chances

Club Tijuana3 from 2.01 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tigres UANL1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
  • 2A. RodriguezG
  • 3R. FernandezD
  • 12J. PorozoD
  • 6A. GomezD
  • 33P. N. Ortiz OrozcoD
  • 8I. TonaM
  • 17R. ArcigaM
  • 15I. RiveroM
  • 31Y. PadillaM
  • 7A. PreciadoM
  • 19D. AbreuF
Substitutes
  • 29J. HernandezG
  • 4U. BilbaoD
  • 34F. BoyaM
  • 20A. ZapataM
  • 16A. VegaD
  • 26A. PerezM
  • 202J. GonzalezF
  • 197J. OrdunoM
  • 9M. El GhezouaniF
Coach: Sebastian Abreu
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmanG
  • 14J. Garza
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 23RomuloD
  • 32V. LoronaD
  • 8F. GorriaranM
  • 5C. AraujoM
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 11J. BrunettaM
  • 77O. HerreraM
  • 17R. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 25F. RodriguezG
  • 193M. Salinas VillarrealD
  • 30D. A. Sanchez GuevaraF
  • 6J. VigonM
  • 4J. SanchezD
  • 26F. I. Ordonez DelgadoD
  • 205A. de Maria CamposF
  • 198I. GalvanM
Coach: Guido Pizarro

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Club Tijuana7412108+213
14Tigres UANL8143911-27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL

  • 17 July 2026Club Tijuana 3–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 4 April 2026Club Tijuana 1–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 30 November 2025Tigres UANL 5–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 27 November 2025Club Tijuana 3–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 25 October 2025Tigres UANL 2–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 29 January 2025Tigres UANL 4–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX

Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Tigres UANL

Club Tijuana

  • G. Mora4 goals1 assists

Tigres UANL

  • J. Brunetta3 goals4 assists
  • R. Aguirre3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.