Regular Season - 12 · 17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Macva vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction

Our model says: Macva 0–1 OFK Beograd

The model makes it 33% Macva, 29% draw, 38% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Macva 1.28, OFK Beograd 1.46.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published

Key facts

  • Macva are 13th on 8 points from 10 games; OFK Beograd are 10th on 9 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
  • Macva are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Mladost Lucani.
  • OFK Beograd are without a win in 4, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to Radnicki 1923.
  • Last 5 meetings: Macva 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 May 2024, ended Macva 2–0 OFK Beograd.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Macva33%3.03
Draw29%3.45
OFK Beograd38%2.63

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Macva vs OFK Beograd

56%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Macva win Draw OFK Beograd win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Macva first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts OFK Beograd at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Macva vs OFK Beograd

Macva

  • L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
  • D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Novi Pazar29 August 2026
  • W1-0Radnicki NIS22 August 2026

OFK Beograd

  • L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
  • D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
  • W1-0Zemun22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Macva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Macva had two goals or fewer.
  • OFK Beograd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Macva10226617-118
10OFK Beograd102351321-89

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Macva vs OFK Beograd

  • 7 May 2024Macva 2–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 13 April 2024Macva 1–1 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 5 November 2023OFK Beograd 2–1 MacvaPrva Liga
  • 3 May 2017Macva 3–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 15 October 2016OFK Beograd 0–1 MacvaPrva Liga

Leading scorers: Macva and OFK Beograd

Macva

  • M. Vidakov3 goals

OFK Beograd

  • Y. Silue6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Macva carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.22 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Macva and 1.46 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Macva rate 0.39 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.58 and 2.04.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives OFK Beograd the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Macva against 1.46 for OFK Beograd. Macva's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.04 for OFK Beograd.

Season stats

MacvaOFK Beograd
10Matches10
2W 2D 6LRecord2W 3D 5L
6 0.6 a gameGoals scored13 1.3 a game
17 1.7 a gameGoals conceded21 2.1 a game
3 of 10Clean sheets2 of 10
4 of 10Failed to score3 of 10
–Penalties scored1 of 1
31 3.1 a gameYellow cards23 2.3 a game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-1-4-1 5×

Macva at home · OFK Beograd away

5Played5
2W 1D 2LRecord1W 0D 4L
4–5Goals for – against6–13
3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super Liga matches this season: Macva 10, OFK Beograd 10.

Macva scored 021112
OFK Beograd conceded 324445
OFK Beograd scored 231240
Macva conceded 220336

OFK Beograd score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Macva have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Macva

  • at Zemun24 Oct · Super Ligawin 32%
  • vs FK Crvena Zvezda1 Nov · Super Ligawin 16%
  • at FK Partizan7 Nov · Super Ligawin 20%
  • vs Vojvodina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 22%

OFK Beograd

  • vs FK Crvena Zvezda24 Oct · Super Ligawin 20%
  • vs Vojvodina1 Nov · Super Ligawin 28%
  • at Radnik Surdulica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
  • vs Novi Pazar21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.