Cukaricki
vs
Zemun
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Cukaricki 1–0 Zemun
The model makes it 48% Cukaricki, 28% draw, 24% Zemun — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cukaricki 1.83, Zemun 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Cukaricki are 9th on 11 points from 10 games; Zemun are bottom on 3 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- Cukaricki have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Železničar Pančevo.
- Zemun have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Novi Pazar.
- Last 4 meetings: Cukaricki 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 November 2018, ended Zemun 0–3 Cukaricki.
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cukaricki vs Zemun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cukaricki at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cukaricki vs Zemun
Cukaricki
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo20 September 2026
- D1-1Novi Pazar12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
- L0-5Vojvodina29 August 2026
- L0-4away to FK Crvena Zvezda23 August 2026
Zemun
- D2-2away to Novi Pazar19 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Surdulica14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Vojvodina6 September 2026
- L0-2FK Crvena Zvezda30 August 2026
- L0-1away to OFK Beograd22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cukaricki did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cukaricki had three goals or more.
- Zemun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zemun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cukaricki vs Zemun
- 10 November 2018Zemun 0–3 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 21 July 2018Cukaricki 1–1 ZemunSuper Liga
- 4 December 2017Cukaricki 4–1 ZemunSuper Liga
- 13 August 2017Zemun 2–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Cukaricki and Zemun
Cukaricki
- U. Miladinović4 goals3 assists
Zemun
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cukaricki carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6 for Zemun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Cukaricki and 0.95 for Zemun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cukaricki rate 0.53 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zemun rate 0.39 and 2.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cukaricki the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cukaricki against 0.95 for Zemun. Cukaricki's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.15 for Zemun.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cukaricki at home · Zemun away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Cukaricki 10, Zemun 10.
Cukaricki score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Zemun have let in 4 there.
Zemun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Cukaricki have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cukaricki
- at FK Partizan24 Oct · Super Ligawin 26%
- at IMT Novi Beograd1 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
- vs Radnicki NIS7 Nov · Super Ligawin 39%
- at Radnicki 192321 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
Zemun
- vs Macva24 Oct · Super Ligawin 37%
- at FK Partizan1 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
- vs IMT Novi Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
- at Radnicki NIS21 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.