Macva
vs
Radnicki 1923
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 22% Macva, 34% draw, 44% Radnicki 1923 — fair odds of 4.55, 2.94 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Macva 0.66, Radnicki 1923 1.04.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Macva
- L1-2away to Radnik Surdulica15 August 2026
- W1-0IMT Novi Beograd9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vojvodina3 August 2026
- L1-3FK Partizan26 July 2026
- L0-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda17 July 2026
Radnicki 1923
- W1-0away to FK Partizan16 August 2026
- W3-0Zemun8 August 2026
- L0-3away to Cukaricki1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Novi Pazar18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Macva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Radnicki 1923 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Macva
- M. Vidakov2 goals
Radnicki 1923
- M. Cissé2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Macva carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.48 for Radnicki 1923. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Macva L-L-L-W-L; Radnicki 1923 L-L-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.66 goals for Macva and 1.04 for Radnicki 1923. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macva rate 0.34 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki 1923 rate 0.41 and 1.03.
That points to 24% for over two and a half goals and 32% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (19%), 0-1 (18%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnicki 1923 the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Macva against 1.04 for Radnicki 1923. Macva's attack/defence rating is 0.34/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.03 for Radnicki 1923.