Novi Pazar vs Zemun Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Novi Pazar 2-2 Zemun.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Novi Pazar, 30% draw, 27% Zemun — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novi Pazar at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Novi Pazar vs Zemun
Line-ups
- 1Bogdan MatijaševićG
- 2A. MiljkovićD
- 5S. MelentijevićD
- 23J. MarinkovićD
- 50T. DadićD
- 6P. GadioM
- 24I. DavidovićM
- 10D. SadiM
- 22A. LjajićM
- 20K. DixonM
- 99F. MulićF
- 4Allan De LeónD
- 70D. JankovićM
- 26D. Johnson AgwomF
- 18H. KadrićF
- 3V. MirosavićD
- 12M. PrekovićG
- 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
- 14N. StankovicM
- 8Skima TogbeM
- 1M. KneževićG
- 11S. KnezevicD
- 21I. OstojićD
- 66V. BakićD
- 88A. KadijevićD
- 32M. MeskhiM
- 7Dimitrije TabakovićM
- 6Z. BogdanovicM
- 8O. IlićM
- 10N. BelakovićM
- 45M. ŠarićF
- 16M. SpremoD
- 75I. PesicF
- 9N. PetrusicF
- 20D. PetrovicM
- 25D. ParađinaD
- 29A. MilosevicD
- 19G. VadzeF
- 31N. KalatM
- 5Đ. JovanovićD
Form going into Novi Pazar vs Zemun
Novi Pazar
Super Liga
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
Zemun
Super Liga
- D1-1Radnik Surdulica14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs Zemun
- 2 March 2020Zemun 1–1 Novi PazarPrva Liga
- 15 September 2019Novi Pazar 2–1 ZemunPrva Liga
Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and Zemun
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon52
Zemun
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Novi Pazar and Zemun drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Novi Pazar at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adem Ljajić 15' for Novi Pazar, Vasilije Bakić 48' for Zemun, Aleksandar Miljković 63' for Novi Pazar, Đorđe Petrović 90+3' for Zemun. Sent off: Tomislav Dadic (Novi Pazar) 89'.
How the call on Novi Pazar v Zemun has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 55% / 27% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 13 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Novi Pazar's chance of winning, down 12 points.
- Novi Pazar win43%▼ −12
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Zemun win27%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.