OFK Beograd
vs
Radnicki 1923
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: OFK Beograd 0–1 Radnicki 1923
The model makes it 28% OFK Beograd, 30% draw, 42% Radnicki 1923 — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: OFK Beograd 0.98, Radnicki 1923 1.42.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are OFK Beograd wins, grey are draws, red are Radnicki 1923 wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnicki 1923 at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923
OFK Beograd
- L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
- D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
- L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
- W1-0Zemun22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Cukaricki15 August 2026
Radnicki 1923
- W5-0Mladost Lucani12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Macva5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Radnicki NIS29 August 2026
- W2-1IMT Novi Beograd22 August 2026
- W1-0away to FK Partizan16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: OFK Beograd vs Radnicki 1923
- 1 July 2026Radnicki 1923 1–2 OFK BeogradFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 4 October 2025Radnicki 1923 0–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 12 April 2025OFK Beograd 3–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 3 February 2025Radnicki 1923 2–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 25 August 2024OFK Beograd 3–5 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
Leading scorers: OFK Beograd and Radnicki 1923
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue4 goals
Radnicki 1923
- M. Cissé3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
OFK Beograd carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.48 for Radnicki 1923. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for OFK Beograd and 1.42 for Radnicki 1923. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFK Beograd rate 0.45 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki 1923 rate 0.64 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives OFK Beograd a 0% chance of the title and Radnicki 1923 2.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnicki 1923 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for OFK Beograd against 1.42 for Radnicki 1923. OFK Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.34 for Radnicki 1923.