Motor Lublin
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 47% Motor Lublin, 24% draw, 29% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.79, GKS Katowice 1.37.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motor Lublin
- L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
GKS Katowice
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Motor Lublin
- M. Ndiaye1 goals1 assists
GKS Katowice
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.57 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Motor Lublin D-L-L; GKS Katowice L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.37 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.81 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 0.65 and 1.17.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GKS Katowice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.37 for GKS Katowice. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.17 for GKS Katowice.