Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gornik Zabrze, 21% draw, 42% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.70, 4.76 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Wisla Krakow at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SacekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20JosemaD
- 21O. ZmrzlyD
- 18L. SadilekM
- 82K. UrbanskiM
- 8P. BernardoM
- 19Peter FedericoF
- 23S. LisethF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 64E. JanzaD
- 2P. Warczak
- 66M. DietzD
- 3M. SynosD
- 28B. DonioM
- 36M. RakoczyM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 1M. LubikG
- 2J. LelieveldD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 52J. KrzyzanowskiD
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 41K. DudaM
- 10F. DuarteM
- 9A. RodadoM
- 17M. BozicM
- 11J. SanchezF
- 28P. LetkiewiczG
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
- 4R. MikulecD
- 29D. GrujcicD
- 50M. KutwaD
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 20E. OmicM
- 21J. GuillemenotF
- 51M. KuziemkaM
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ferencvarosi TC5 August 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce1 August 2026
- D1-1Fenerbahçe29 July 2026
Wisla Krakow
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Wisla Plock7 August 2026
- L3-4away to Piast Gliwice1 August 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice26 July 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow
- 17 November 2023Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Wisla KrakowFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2022Wisla Krakow 4–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 16 October 2021Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 5 March 2021Wisla Krakow 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 25 September 2020Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze beat Wisla Krakow 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wisla Krakow at 42% and given a win for Gornik Zabrze 37%. The goals: L. Sadilek 27' for Gornik Zabrze, M. Khlan 53' for Gornik Zabrze, J. Sanchez 55' for Wisla Krakow. Sent off: S. Liseth (Gornik Zabrze) 56'. On expected goals it finished 0.60–1.69.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.