Moreirense
vs
Estrela
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Moreirense 2–1 Estrela
The model makes it 37% Moreirense, 27% draw, 36% Estrela — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.47, Estrela 1.46.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Moreirense and Estrela are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Moreirense are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; Estrela are 10th on 10 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to GIL Vicente.
- Estrela are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Arouca.
- Last 6 meetings: Moreirense 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Moreirense 3–2 Estrela.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Moreirense vs Estrela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Moreirense at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Moreirense vs Estrela
Moreirense
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
Estrela
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
What these results say
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estrela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Moreirense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Estrela
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Estrela
- 2 May 2026Moreirense 3–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 20 December 2025Estrela 0–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 2 March 2025Moreirense 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2024Estrela 2–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 7 April 2024Moreirense 2–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 11 November 2023Estrela 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Moreirense and Estrela
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
- L. Antonetti41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Moreirense carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.69 for Estrela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Moreirense and 1.46 for Estrela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Moreirense rate 0.74 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estrela rate 0.94 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Estrela, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Moreirense the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Moreirense against 1.46 for Estrela. Moreirense's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.31 for Estrela.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Moreirense at home · Estrela away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Moreirense 8, Estrela 8.
Moreirense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Estrela have let in 1 there.
Estrela score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Moreirense have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Moreirense
- at Sporting CP7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 9%
- vs Santa Clara28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- at Alverca6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- vs Famalicao13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 30%
Estrela
- vs Benfica8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 16%
- at Vitória SC28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- vs GIL Vicente6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 36%
- at FC Porto13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 9%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.