SC Braga
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 50% SC Braga, 28% draw, 22% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.60, GIL Vicente 0.88.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to SC Braga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
More Primeira Liga predictions
Model insights: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Braga vs GIL Vicente
SC Braga
- L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
GIL Vicente
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente
- 14 February 2026GIL Vicente 2–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 14 September 2025SC Braga 0–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 9 February 2025SC Braga 2–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 1 September 2024GIL Vicente 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2024SC Braga 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 28 October 2023GIL Vicente 3–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and GIL Vicente
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor31
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.77 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for SC Braga and 0.88 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 1.14 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 0.78 and 0.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GIL Vicente, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SC Braga a 0.6% chance of the title and GIL Vicente 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.88 for GIL Vicente. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.93 for GIL Vicente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.