FC Porto
vs
Estoril
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto 2–0 Estoril
The model makes it 75% FC Porto, 17% draw, 8% Estoril — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Porto 2.63, Estoril 0.56.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Porto are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- FC Porto are top on 24 points from 8 games; Estoril are bottom on 2 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Maritimo.
- Estoril have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Academico Viseu.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Porto 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Estoril 1–3 FC Porto.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto vs Estoril
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 75% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 322 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into FC Porto vs Estoril
FC Porto
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
Estoril
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
- Estoril did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estoril conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 24 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs FC Porto
Estoril and FC Porto have met 6 times in the records we hold, FC Porto has won 5 of them to Estoril's 1.
The record
FC Porto won the last one 3–1 on 12 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| FC Porto | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Apr 2026
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–3 FC Porto - 30 Nov 2025
Primeira LigaFC Porto 1–0 Estoril - 30 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–2 FC Porto - 3 Nov 2024
Primeira LigaFC Porto 4–0 Estoril - 30 Mar 2024
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–0 FC Porto - 9 Jan 2024
Taça de PortugalEstoril 0–4 FC Porto
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Estoril
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- André Silva32
- Borja Sainz30
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Porto carry a model rating of 7.3 against 6.61 for Estoril. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for FC Porto and 0.56 for Estoril. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto rate 1.44 in attack and 0.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estoril rate 0.75 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Porto a 58.9% chance of the title and Estoril 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for FC Porto against 0.56 for Estoril. FC Porto's attack/defence rating is 1.44/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.21 for Estoril.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Porto at home · Estoril away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: FC Porto 8, Estoril 8.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Estoril have let in 2 there.
Estoril score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); FC Porto have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto
- vs Napoli4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
- at Vitória SC8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 63%
- at Feyenoord24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Estoril
- vs Maritimo8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at GIL Vicente29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- vs Vitória SC6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
- vs Santa Clara13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.