Jong Ajax
vs
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap
The model makes it 39% Jong Ajax, 28% draw, 33% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.63, De Graafschap 1.38.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Jong Ajax are 17th on 8 points from 9 games; De Graafschap are 19th on 8 points from 9 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong Ajax are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Roda.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended De Graafschap 4–0 Jong Ajax.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jong Ajax at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
Jong Ajax
- D0-0Roda18 September 2026
- L1-6away to Jong Utrecht14 September 2026
- L0-2Waalwijk11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Almere City FC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Jong PSV U2131 August 2026
De Graafschap
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Heracles4 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong Ajax failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Ajax had two goals or fewer.
- De Graafschap scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
- 6 February 2026De Graafschap 4–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 3 October 2025Jong Ajax 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 19 April 2025De Graafschap 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 9 December 2024Jong Ajax 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 11 March 2024De Graafschap 0–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 21 August 2023Jong Ajax 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and De Graafschap
Jong Ajax
- D. Pugno5 goals2 assists
- E. Ünüvar5 goals
De Graafschap
- J. Kania4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jong Ajax carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.25 for De Graafschap. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Jong Ajax and 1.38 for De Graafschap. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jong Ajax rate 0.54 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; De Graafschap rate 0.56 and 1.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Ajax a 0% chance of the title and De Graafschap 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jong Ajax the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jong Ajax against 1.38 for De Graafschap. Jong Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.86 for De Graafschap.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jong Ajax at home · De Graafschap away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Ajax 9, De Graafschap 9.
Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); De Graafschap have let in 3 there.
De Graafschap score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jong Ajax have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jong Ajax
- at FC OSS23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs Vitesse2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- at FC Eindhoven6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- at FC Volendam20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
De Graafschap
- vs Waalwijk23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at FC Volendam30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- at Vitesse8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- vs FC OSS14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.