ML Vitebsk
vs
Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League prediction
Our model says: ML Vitebsk 2–0 Torpedo Zhodino
The model makes it 67% ML Vitebsk, 20% draw, 13% Torpedo Zhodino — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 2.53, Torpedo Zhodino 0.86.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: ML Vitebsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ML Vitebsk are top on 47 points from 22 games; Torpedo Zhodino are 9th on 30 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- ML Vitebsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 5-1 win away to FC Gomel.
- Torpedo Zhodino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Minsk.
- Last 5 meetings: Torpedo Zhodino 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 ML Vitebsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ML Vitebsk at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
ML Vitebsk
- W5-1away to FC Gomel11 October 2026
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina2 September 2026
Torpedo Zhodino
- W1-0away to FC Minsk10 October 2026
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
- L1-2FC Gomel5 September 2026
- W4-2away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30 August 2026
What these results say
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 47 | 18 | +29 | 47 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ML Vitebsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 56% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
- 21 March 2026Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 ML VitebskPremier League
- 13 September 2025ML Vitebsk 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 8 May 2025ML Vitebsk 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoCoppa
- 27 April 2025Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 ML VitebskPremier League
- 16 April 2025Torpedo Zhodino 0–0 ML VitebskCoppa
The two sides
ML Vitebsk carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.13 for Torpedo Zhodino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for ML Vitebsk and 0.86 for Torpedo Zhodino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ML Vitebsk rate 0.75 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Zhodino rate 0.49 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ML Vitebsk a 56.2% chance of the title and Torpedo Zhodino 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for ML Vitebsk against 0.86 for Torpedo Zhodino. ML Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.07 for Torpedo Zhodino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ML Vitebsk at home · Torpedo Zhodino away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: ML Vitebsk 22, Torpedo Zhodino 23.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Torpedo Zhodino have let in 4 there.
Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); ML Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ML Vitebsk
- vs Neman17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at FC Vitebsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs FC Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- at Naftan7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
Torpedo Zhodino
- vs Naftan17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 61%
- at Slavia Mozyr24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Belshina31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at Bate Borisov7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.