Dinamo Minsk
vs
Slavia Mozyr
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Slavia Mozyr
The model makes it 62% Dinamo Minsk, 23% draw, 15% Slavia Mozyr — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 2.12, Slavia Mozyr 0.79.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Minsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Minsk are 3rd on 46 points from 22 games; Slavia Mozyr are 10th on 25 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Minsk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- Slavia Mozyr are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bate Borisov.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Slavia Mozyr 1–2 Dinamo Minsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Minsk at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
- W3-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev11 October 2026
- W2-0Bate Borisov19 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest13 September 2026
- D0-0away to ML Vitebsk6 September 2026
- W5-1Naftan2 September 2026
Slavia Mozyr
- L1-2away to Bate Borisov10 October 2026
- L0-1Naftan19 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Minsk11 September 2026
- W3-0FC Vitebsk4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman29 August 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Mozyr failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | +22 | 46 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Minsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 31% today
Slavia Mozyr
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr
- 21 March 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 21 February 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–3 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs
- 24 August 2025Dinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia MozyrPremier League
- 13 April 2025Slavia Mozyr 3–0 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 19 October 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Slavia MozyrPremier League
- 26 May 2024Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League
The two sides
Dinamo Minsk carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.15 for Slavia Mozyr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.79 for Slavia Mozyr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Minsk rate 0.68 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Mozyr rate 0.47 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Minsk a 30.8% chance of the title and Slavia Mozyr 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk against 0.79 for Slavia Mozyr. Dinamo Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.92 for Slavia Mozyr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Minsk at home · Slavia Mozyr away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Minsk 22, Slavia Mozyr 23.
Dinamo Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Slavia Mozyr have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Minsk
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 70%
- at FC Gomel24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Neman31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at FC Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Slavia Mozyr
- at Belshina17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- vs Baranovichi7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at ML Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.