Cagliari
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 60% Cagliari, 21% draw, 19% Lecce — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Cagliari 2.12, Lecce 1.13.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cagliari
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
Lecce
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Lecce
- 16 February 2026Cagliari 0–2 LecceSerie A
- 19 September 2025Lecce 1–2 CagliariSerie A
- 19 January 2025Cagliari 4–1 LecceSerie A
- 31 August 2024Lecce 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 5 May 2024Cagliari 1–1 LecceSerie A
- 6 January 2024Lecce 1–1 CagliariSerie A
The two sides
Cagliari carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.76 for Lecce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cagliari W; Lecce W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Cagliari and 1.13 for Lecce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cagliari rate 1.08 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lecce rate 0.86 and 1.04.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lecce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cagliari the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Cagliari against 1.13 for Lecce. Cagliari's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.04 for Lecce.