MC Alger
vs
Khenchela
Ligue 1 postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 53% MC Alger, 27% draw, 20% Khenchela — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: MC Alger 1.65, Khenchela 0.83.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to MC Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Model insights: MC Alger vs Khenchela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MC Alger at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MC Alger vs Khenchela
MC Alger
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
- W1-0Témouchent9 October 2026
- W2-0MB Rouisset18 September 2026
Khenchela
- W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
- D0-0USM Alger4 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
- Khenchela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Khenchela | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MC Alger vs Khenchela
- 17 March 2026MC Alger 2–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 13 December 2025MC Alger 2–1 KhenchelaCoupe Nationale
- 30 October 2025Khenchela 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 15 March 2025MC Alger 2–2 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 18 October 2024Khenchela 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 11 May 2024Khenchela 1–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
The two sides
MC Alger carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.3 for Khenchela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for MC Alger and 0.83 for Khenchela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MC Alger rate 0.62 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khenchela rate 0.54 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for MC Alger against 0.83 for Khenchela. MC Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.64 for Khenchela.