Marseille
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 80% Marseille, 11% draw, 9% Strasbourg — fair odds of 1.25, 9.09 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Marseille 3.80, Strasbourg 1.37.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Strasbourg
- 14 February 2026Marseille 2–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 26 September 2025Strasbourg 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 19 January 2025Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 29 September 2024Strasbourg 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 12 January 2024Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 25 November 2023Strasbourg 1–1 MarseilleLigue 1
The two sides
Marseille carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.58 for Strasbourg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.80 goals for Marseille and 1.37 for Strasbourg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Marseille rate 1.29 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Strasbourg rate 0.89 and 1.56.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 2-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.8 expected goals for Marseille against 1.37 for Strasbourg. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.29/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.56 for Strasbourg.