Marseille vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg.
Before kick-off the model made it 80% Marseille, 11% draw, 9% Strasbourg — fair odds of 1.25, 9.09 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 80%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Strasbourg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. De LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 19G. KondogbiaD
- 33EmersonD
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 23P. HojbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 7A. GomesM
- 14I. PaixaoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 92T. VermotG
- 21N. AguerdD
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 74K. BezahafD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 6T. NnadiM
- 43T. MmadiF
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 11N. MaupayF
- 1F. JorgensenG
- 22G. DoueD
- 2A. OmobamideleD
- 24L. HogsbergD
- 16G. AntwiD
- 23D. SousaM
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawM
- 11S. NanasiM
- 80G. YassineM
- 14S. MaraF
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
- 4J. MitchellD
- 10G. ReynaM
- 21P. DembaM
- 17M. AmougouM
- 15M. Del BlancoD
- 19F. BaldeF
- 37G. KodiaF
- 30J. OrtegaF
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Strasbourg
- 14 February 2026Marseille 2–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 26 September 2025Strasbourg 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 19 January 2025Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 29 September 2024Strasbourg 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 12 January 2024Marseille 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
Leading scorers: Marseille and Strasbourg
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Marseille beat Strasbourg 4–0. The model had made a win for Marseille its most likely outcome, at 80%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: A. Gouiri 46' for Marseille, A. Gouiri (penalty) 68' for Marseille, K. Abdallah 89' for Marseille, P. Hojbjerg 90' for Marseille. Sent off: Samir El Mourabet (Strasbourg) 59'. On expected goals it finished 1.89–0.20.