Sochaux
vs
Guingamp
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 22% Sochaux, 27% draw, 51% Guingamp — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Sochaux 0.90, Guingamp 1.52.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sochaux
- L0-3Saint Etienne8 August 2026
Guingamp
- L1-2away to Metz8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sochaux | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Guingamp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Sochaux carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.66 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sochaux L; Guingamp L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Sochaux and 1.52 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sochaux rate 0.51 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.58 and 0.93.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.9 expected goals for Sochaux against 1.52 for Guingamp. Sochaux's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/0.93 for Guingamp.