Maritimo
vs
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Maritimo 0–1 Santa Clara
The model makes it 30% Maritimo, 29% draw, 41% Santa Clara — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Maritimo 1.05, Santa Clara 1.35.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Santa Clara: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Maritimo are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Maritimo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto.
- Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Casa Pia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 April 2024, ended Maritimo 0–0 Santa Clara.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Maritimo
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
Santa Clara
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Santa Clara
- 14 April 2024Maritimo 0–0 Santa ClaraSegunda Liga
- 3 December 2023Santa Clara 2–1 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 25 February 2023Maritimo 3–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 4 September 2022Santa Clara 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 29 July 2022Maritimo 1–0 Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs
- 23 April 2022Santa Clara 2–2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and Santa Clara
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maritimo carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.88 for Santa Clara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Maritimo and 1.35 for Santa Clara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maritimo rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Clara rate 0.84 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maritimo a 0% chance of the title and Santa Clara 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Maritimo against 1.35 for Santa Clara. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.82 for Santa Clara.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maritimo at home · Santa Clara away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Maritimo 8, Santa Clara 8.
Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Santa Clara have let in 0 there.
Santa Clara score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Maritimo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maritimo
- at Estoril8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 33%
- vs Nacional27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Sporting CP6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 10%
- vs Rio Ave13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 47%
Santa Clara
- vs GIL Vicente8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 42%
- at Moreirense28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 43%
- vs FC Porto6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- at Estoril13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.