Arsenal
vs
Lille
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 2–0 Lille
The model makes it 52% Arsenal, 27% draw, 21% Lille — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.94, Lille 0.81.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arsenal are 15th on 3 points from 1 game; Lille are 22nd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Brighton.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Nice.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Lille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Lille
Arsenal
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Lille
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Arsenal carry a model rating of 7.32 against 7.05 for Lille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Arsenal and 0.81 for Lille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal rate 1.40 in attack and 0.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lille rate 1.05 and 0.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.81 for Lille. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.72 for Lille.
Season stats
Arsenal at home · Lille away
League matches only, this season — Arsenal in the Premier League, Lille in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Arsenal 5 in the Premier League, Lille 5 in the Ligue 1.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal
- at Nottingham Forest18 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Bayern München21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Everton24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Lille
- vs Stade Brestois 2917 Oct · Ligue 1win 53%
- vs Galatasaray21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- at Monaco25 Oct · Ligue 1win 32%
- vs Lens30 Oct · Ligue 1win 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.