Čelik vs FK Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Čelik 0-0 FK Sarajevo.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Čelik, 28% draw, 37% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Sarajevo at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. Sutkovic
- 4K. Horic
- 7D. Sijamija
- 8A. Mohedano
- 14A. Hrvanovic
- 17A. Omic
- 18O. Sarkic
- 19N. Smajlovic
- 24H. Sabanovic
- 88F. Gogic
- 99A. Masic
- 23A. Durmo
- 2A. Hodzic
- 5H. Vardo
- 6A. Masetic
- 9D. Vidic
- 11S. Faraj
- 15M. Popovic
- 20B. Jenjic
- 21E. Sivac
- 31I. Banic
- 6J. Ivanisevic
- 7I. Saric
- 9L. Mikic
- 11F. Kyeremeh
- 19R. Caraballo
- 20A. Elezi
- 22A. Beganovic
- 30L. Dajcer
- 35S. Ignatkov
- 70S. Pidro
- 13S. Musija
- 2S. Maroodza
- 5R. Telalovic
- 8A. Galesic
- 14V. Leto
- 17F. Kosi
- 18M. Glogovac
- 24F. Zivkovic
- 59G. Cimirot
Form going into Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
Čelik
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo18 September 2026
- W3-2Radnik Bijeljina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to BSK Banja Luka5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sloga Doboj1 September 2026
FK Sarajevo
- W2-0Sloga Doboj20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velež13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W1-0Borac Banja Luka6 September 2026
What these results say
- Čelik failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Čelik scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Čelik conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
- 11 October 2026Čelik 0–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 11 February 2026Čelik 0–1 FK SarajevoCup
- 19 October 2022Čelik 1–1 FK SarajevoCup
- 18 October 2019FK Sarajevo 2–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 28 July 2019Čelik 0–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 3 May 2019FK Sarajevo 5–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.