CSKA 1948
vs
Botev Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: CSKA 1948 2–1 Botev Plovdiv
The model makes it 48% CSKA 1948, 26% draw, 26% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 1.77, Botev Plovdiv 1.18.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CSKA 1948 are 4th on 22 points from 11 games; Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 19 points from 11 games — First League.
- CSKA 1948 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to CSKA Sofia.
- Botev Plovdiv are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Slavia Sofia.
- Last 5 meetings: CSKA 1948 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended CSKA 1948 0–0 Botev Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
- L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 August 2026
Botev Plovdiv
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA 1948 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CSKA 1948
Chance to finish in the top four · 70% today
Botev Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv
- 8 March 2026CSKA 1948 0–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 25 September 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 16 March 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–5 CSKA 1948First League
- 29 September 2024CSKA 1948 0–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 23 May 2024CSKA 1948 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Botev Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
GoalsAssists
- Frédéric Maciel10
Botev Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.41 for Botev Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for CSKA 1948 and 1.18 for Botev Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.76 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Plovdiv rate 0.69 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA 1948 a 0.6% chance of the title and Botev Plovdiv 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 1.18 for Botev Plovdiv. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.69 for Botev Plovdiv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA 1948 at home · Botev Plovdiv away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CSKA 1948Botev Plovdiv
CSKA 1948 are 4th after 11 First League matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Botev Plovdiv are 5th after 11 (between 5th and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: CSKA 1948 11, Botev Plovdiv 11.
CSKA 1948 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Botev Plovdiv have let in 6 there.
Botev Plovdiv score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); CSKA 1948 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CSKA 1948
- at Ludogorets31 Oct · First Leaguewin 22%
- vs Spartak Varna7 Nov · First Leaguewin 60%
- at Botev Vratsa21 Nov · First Leaguewin 48%
- at Arda Kardzhali28 Nov · First Leaguewin 43%
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 58%
Botev Plovdiv
- vs Dunav Ruse31 Oct · First Leaguewin 54%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 41%
- vs CSKA Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 29%
- at Cherno More Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 43%
- at Spartak Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.