Reims
vs
Annecy
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 45% Reims, 21% draw, 34% Annecy — fair odds of 2.22, 4.76 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Reims 2.14, Annecy 1.85.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Reims
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot8 August 2026
Annecy
- W1-0away to PAU8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Reims | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Annecy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Reims carry a model rating of 6.99 against 7.04 for Annecy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Reims D; Annecy W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Reims and 1.85 for Annecy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Reims rate 1.43 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Annecy rate 1.16 and 0.79.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Annecy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reims the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Reims against 1.85 for Annecy. Reims's attack/defence rating is 1.43/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.79 for Annecy.