24 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fulham vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result

Craven Cottage, London
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Fulham 2-3 Chelsea.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Fulham, 24% draw, 24% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fulham at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fulham0%Draw5%Chelsea95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Joao Pedroassist: C. Palmer
5'
Levi Colwill
12'
Roméo Lavia
⚽J. Kingassist: T. Castagne
23'
41'
⚽M. Rogersassist: M. Lacroix
49'
⚽C. Palmerassist: Joao Pedro
⚽G. Garcia
54'
65'
🔁J. Hatoout: P. Chavarria
65'
🔁R. Laviaout: E. Fernandez
🔁O. Bobbout: S. Charles
67'
🔁S. Bergeout: R. Sessegnon
73'
🔁C. Palaciosout: Kevin
73'
75'
Reece James
Calvin Bassey
76'
76'
🔁M. Gustoout: P. Neto
🔁A. Robinsonout: Rodrigo Muniz
82'
82'
🔁M. Rogersout: G. Quenda
83'
🔁C. Palmerout: Estêvão
Timothy Castagne
88'

Match stats — Fulham vs Chelsea

61%Possession39%
14Shots18
6On target6
6Corners4
1.35xG1.7

Goals against chances

Fulham2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chelsea3 from 1.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. LenoG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 3C. BasseyD
  • 4J. CuencaD
  • 33A. RobinsonD
  • 16S. BergeM
  • 17A. IwobiM
  • 14O. BobbM
  • 24J. KingM
  • 8C. PalaciosM
  • 7G. GarciaF
Substitutes
  • 23B. LecomteG
  • 2K. TeteD
  • 44L. De FougerollesD
  • 30R. SessegnonM
  • 32E. Smith RoweM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 6H. ReedM
  • 11KevinF
  • 9Rodrigo MunizF
Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Chelsea 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. SanchezG
  • 34J. AcheampongD
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 27M. GustoM
  • 24R. JamesM
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 21J. HatoM
  • 10C. PalmerF
  • 17M. RogersF
  • 9Joao PedroF
Substitutes
  • 39M. PendersG
  • 29P. ChavarriaD
  • 8E. FernandezM
  • 4V. BarcoM
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 7P. NetoF
  • 11J. GittensF
  • 41EstêvãoF
  • 23G. QuendaM
Coach: Xabi Alonso

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Fulham102441012-210
5Chelsea105141916+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fulham vs Chelsea

  • 7 January 2026Fulham 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
  • 30 August 2025Chelsea 2–0 FulhamPremier League
  • 20 April 2025Fulham 1–2 ChelseaPremier League
  • 26 December 2024Chelsea 1–2 FulhamPremier League
  • 13 January 2024Chelsea 1–0 FulhamPremier League

The full Fulham vs Chelsea record →

Leading scorers: Fulham and Chelsea

Fulham

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Chelsea

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro53
  • M. Rogers51
  • Pedro Neto31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chelsea won 3–2 at Fulham. The model had leaned towards a win for Fulham at 52% and given a win for Chelsea 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joao Pedro 1' for Chelsea, J. King 23' for Fulham, M. Rogers 41' for Chelsea, C. Palmer 49' for Chelsea, G. Garcia 54' for Fulham. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.70.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.