Fulham
vs
Chelsea
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 52% Fulham, 25% draw, 23% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.74, Chelsea 1.08.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Chelsea
- 7 January 2026Fulham 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 30 August 2025Chelsea 2–0 FulhamPremier League
- 20 April 2025Fulham 1–2 ChelseaPremier League
- 26 December 2024Chelsea 1–2 FulhamPremier League
- 13 January 2024Chelsea 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- 2 October 2023Fulham 0–2 ChelseaPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fulham carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.8 for Chelsea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Fulham and 1.08 for Chelsea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fulham rate 0.92 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chelsea rate 0.90 and 1.00.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fulham the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fulham against 1.08 for Chelsea. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1 for Chelsea.