Cerro Porteno
vs
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Cerro Porteno 1–0 2 de Mayo
The model makes it 45% Cerro Porteno, 29% draw, 26% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cerro Porteno 1.63, 2 de Mayo 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cerro Porteno are 8th on 17 points from 12 games; 2 de Mayo are 4th on 22 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Cerro Porteno have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
- 2 de Mayo are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Rubio NU.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 July 2026, ended 2 de Mayo 2–1 Cerro Porteno.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cerro Porteno vs 2 de Mayo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cerro Porteno at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs 2 de Mayo
Cerro Porteno
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani12 September 2026
- W1-0Nacional Asuncion7 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta3 September 2026
2 de Mayo
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion18 September 2026
- L0-2Libertad Asuncion11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo5 September 2026
- D2-2Sportivo Luqueno1 September 2026
What these results say
- Cerro Porteno scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for 2 de Mayo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs 2 de Mayo
- 28 July 20262 de Mayo 2–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 April 2026Cerro Porteno 3–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 7 February 20262 de Mayo 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 11 October 20252 de Mayo 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 30 July 2025Cerro Porteno 3–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2025Cerro Porteno 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and 2 de Mayo
Cerro Porteno
- P. Vegetti6 goals
- D. Rodríguez3 goals3 assists
- I. Ramírez3 goals2 assists
2 de Mayo
- D. Acosta5 goals1 assist
- F. Cáceres3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cerro Porteno carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.41 for 2 de Mayo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.95 for 2 de Mayo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cerro Porteno rate 0.67 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 2 de Mayo rate 0.62 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 2 de Mayo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cerro Porteno a 1% chance of the title and 2 de Mayo 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Cerro Porteno against 0.95 for 2 de Mayo. Cerro Porteno's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.5 for 2 de Mayo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cerro Porteno at home · 2 de Mayo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Cerro Porteno 12, 2 de Mayo 12.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 1 there.
2 de Mayo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cerro Porteno
- at Sportivo Luqueno14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 46%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
- vs Olimpia5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- at Libertad Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
2 de Mayo
- vs Sportivo Ameliano14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- at Olimpia21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
- at Club Guarani5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 24%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.