Lillestrom
vs
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Lillestrom 1–2 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 26% Lillestrom, 26% draw, 48% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.22, Real Sociedad 1.83.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Real Sociedad are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lillestrom are 24th on 0 points from 1 game; Real Sociedad are 22nd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Molde.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Lillestrom
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.91 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Lillestrom and 1.83 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.66 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.23 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.83 for Real Sociedad. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.11 for Real Sociedad.
Season stats
Lillestrom at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, this season — Lillestrom in the Eliteserien, Real Sociedad in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lillestrom 22 in the Eliteserien, Real Sociedad 8 in the La Liga.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lillestrom have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lillestrom
- vs Brann25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 36%
- at Start1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 41%
- vs Plzen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Real Sociedad
- vs Levante25 Oct · La Ligawin 54%
- at Athletic Club1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Lyon5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.