Lech Poznan
vs
Sunderland
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–1 Sunderland
The model makes it 53% Lech Poznan, 25% draw, 22% Sunderland — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.89, Sunderland 1.03.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Lech Poznan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are 35th on 0 points from 1 game; Sunderland are 15th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Slask Wroclaw.
- Sunderland are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Brighton.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Lech Poznan
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
Sunderland
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.78 for Sunderland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.03 for Sunderland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 1.13 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sunderland rate 0.88 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sunderland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.03 for Sunderland. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.01 for Sunderland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Sunderland away
League matches only, this season — Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa, Sunderland in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lech Poznan 9 in the Ekstraklasa, Sunderland 6 in the Premier League.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Sunderland have let in 1 there.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- at Legia Warszawa25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Wisla Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Benfica5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
Sunderland
- vs Leeds25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Brentford28 Oct · League Cupwin 33%
- at Coventry31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.