OFI
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: OFI 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 18% OFI, 21% draw, 61% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 5.56, 4.76 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: OFI 1.11, Bayer Leverkusen 2.45.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- OFI are 9th on 3 points from 1 game; Bayer Leverkusen are 8th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- OFI have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AEK Athens FC.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
OFI
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: OFI and Bayer Leverkusen
OFI
GoalsAssists
- Aitor Cantalapiedra10
Bayer Leverkusen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
OFI carry a model rating of 6.57 against 7.12 for Bayer Leverkusen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for OFI and 2.45 for Bayer Leverkusen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFI rate 0.80 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.42 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for OFI against 2.45 for Bayer Leverkusen. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.84 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Season stats
OFI at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, this season — OFI in the Super League 1, Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: OFI 6 in the Super League 1, Bayer Leverkusen 5 in the Bundesliga.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
OFI
- vs PAOK25 Oct · Super League 1win 23%
- at Panetolikos1 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
Bayer Leverkusen
- at 1899 Hoffenheim25 Oct · Bundesligawin 55%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 74%
- vs VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Marseille5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.