Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Sparta Praha
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 42% Olympiakos Piraeus, 30% draw, 28% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31, Sparta Praha 0.97.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olympiakos Piraeus are 13th on 3 points from 1 game; Sparta Praha are 3rd on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Panathinaikos.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pardubice.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026
Sparta Praha
- W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha
Olympiakos Piraeus
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- T. Guddal20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympiakos Piraeus carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.96 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.97 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.85 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.16 and 0.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sparta Praha, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.97 for Sparta Praha. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.93 for Sparta Praha.
Season stats
Olympiakos Piraeus at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, this season — Olympiakos Piraeus in the Super League 1, Sparta Praha in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Olympiakos Piraeus 6 in the Super League 1, Sparta Praha 10 in the Czech Liga.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs Kalamata25 Oct · Super League 1win 55%
- at Kifisia31 Oct · Super League 1win 49%
- at Rennes5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 33%
Sparta Praha
- vs Slovácko25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 66%
- at Bohemians 19051 Nov · Czech Ligawin 50%
- vs Bournemouth5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.