Lille
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lille 1–0 Lyon
The model makes it 47% Lille, 30% draw, 23% Lyon — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Lille 1.41, Lyon 0.83.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to Lille: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lille's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lyon's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Lille are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Lyon are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Lille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Rennes.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stade Brestois 29.
- Last 6 meetings: Lyon 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Lyon 1–0 Lille.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lille vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 47%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lille vs Lyon
Lille
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Rennes8 November 2026
- W1-0Lens30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Monaco25 October 2026
- D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
Lyon
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Stade Brestois 298 November 2026
- W2-0Angers1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Paris Saint Germain26 October 2026
- W2-1Nice18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
What these results say
- Lille went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lille had two goals or fewer.
- Lyon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lille
Chance to finish in the top three · 57% today
Lyon
Chance to finish in the top three · 13% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lille vs Lyon
Lille and Lyon have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lyon has won 5 of them to Lille's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lyon won the last one 1–0 on 1 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Lyon | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Lyon 1–0 Lille - 11 Jan 2026
Coupe de FranceLille 1–2 Lyon - 28 Sep 2025
Ligue 1Lille 0–1 Lyon - 5 Apr 2025
Ligue 1Lyon 2–1 Lille - 1 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Lille 1–1 Lyon - 6 May 2024
Ligue 1Lille 3–4 Lyon
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Lille's attack rates 4% above Lyon's, and Lille concede 25% fewer than Lyon. That gives Lille the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lille and Lyon
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lille a 9.5% chance of the title and Lyon 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Lille v Lyon has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 31% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lille win47%▲ +3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Lyon win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lille against 0.83 for Lyon. Lille's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.85 for Lyon.
How the model reaches 47% for Lille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lille to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Lille's ratings add 3 points and Lyon's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−4
- Lille's ratings42%+3
- Lyon's ratings47%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lille at home · Lyon away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LilleLyon
Lille are 2nd after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Lyon are 5th after 10 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lille 10, Lyon 10.
Lille score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Lyon have let in 2 there.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lille
- vs Bayern München25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 19%
- at Le Mans28 Nov · Ligue 1win 53%
- vs Auxerre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 64%
- at VfB Stuttgart9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
- at Lorient13 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Lyon
- vs Lillestrom26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
- vs Monaco29 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Estac Troyes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 47%
- vs Union St. Gilloise10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Marseille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.