Libertad
vs
Leones del Norte
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Libertad 1–0 Leones del Norte
The model makes it 42% Libertad, 30% draw, 28% Leones del Norte — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Libertad 1.52, Leones del Norte 1.01.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 2 meetings: Leones del Norte 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended Libertad 1–3 Leones del Norte.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Libertad vs Leones del Norte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Libertad vs Leones del Norte
- 4 July 2026Libertad 1–3 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 28 February 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Libertad and Leones del Norte
Libertad
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín9 goals1 assist
Leones del Norte
- Juan Luis Anangonó León10 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Libertad carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.46 for Leones del Norte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Libertad and 1.01 for Leones del Norte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Libertad rate 0.69 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leones del Norte rate 0.61 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Libertad against 1.01 for Leones del Norte. Libertad's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.35 for Leones del Norte.
Season stats
Libertad at home · Leones del Norte away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Libertad 31, Leones del Norte 31.
Libertad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Leones del Norte have let in 10 there.
Leones del Norte score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Libertad have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Libertad
- vs Guayaquil City FC18 Oct · Liga Prowin 44%
- at Leones del Norte25 Oct · Liga Prowin 32%
- at Guayaquil City FC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs Emelec8 Nov · Liga Prowin 47%
Leones del Norte
- vs Emelec18 Oct · Liga Prowin 44%
- vs Libertad25 Oct · Liga Prowin 38%
- at Emelec1 Nov · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Guayaquil City FC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.