Guayaquil City FC
vs
Emelec
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Guayaquil City FC 1–0 Emelec
The model makes it 45% Guayaquil City FC, 29% draw, 26% Emelec — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Guayaquil City FC 1.66, Emelec 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 10 August 2026, ended Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Emelec.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guayaquil City FC at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
- 10 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 22 October 2025Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
- 4 November 2023Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 30 May 2023Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 12 February 2023Emelec 2–0 Guayaquil City FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Guayaquil City FC and Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
- E. Mero13 goals4 assists
Emelec
- R. Carrillo10 goals3 assists
- L. Klimowicz6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guayaquil City FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.35 for Emelec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Guayaquil City FC and 1.02 for Emelec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guayaquil City FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emelec rate 0.54 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guayaquil City FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Guayaquil City FC against 1.02 for Emelec. Guayaquil City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.48 for Emelec.
Season stats
Guayaquil City FC at home · Emelec away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Guayaquil City FC 31, Emelec 31.
Guayaquil City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Emelec have let in 11 there.
Emelec score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Guayaquil City FC have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Guayaquil City FC
- at Libertad18 Oct · Liga Prowin 28%
- at Emelec25 Oct · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Libertad1 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Leones del Norte8 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
Emelec
- at Leones del Norte18 Oct · Liga Prowin 26%
- vs Guayaquil City FC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 37%
- vs Leones del Norte1 Nov · Liga Prowin 36%
- at Libertad8 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.