Shamrock Rovers
vs
Bohemians
Premier Division postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 42% Shamrock Rovers, 28% draw, 30% Bohemians — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.67, Bohemians 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Model insights: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Derry City30 August 2026
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
Bohemians
- W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
- W5-3Derry City21 August 2026
What these results say
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians won every one of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 2 | Bohemians | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 38 | +19 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians
- 25 May 2026Bohemians 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 17 April 2026Shamrock Rovers 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Bohemians 3–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 26 September 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 23 June 2025Bohemians 2–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 21 April 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–3 BohemiansPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians
Shamrock Rovers
- J. McGovern7 goals5 assists
- G. Burke7 goals2 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
Bohemians
- C. Whelan12 goals6 assists
- R. Tierney9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shamrock Rovers carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.36 for Bohemians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.20 for Bohemians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shamrock Rovers rate 0.63 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians rate 0.68 and 1.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bohemians, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shamrock Rovers a 58.6% chance of the title and Bohemians 15.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 1.20 for Bohemians. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.83 for Bohemians.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.