Levante
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Levante 1–2 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 25% Levante, 25% draw, 50% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Levante 1.22, Atletico Madrid 1.91.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Levante are 17th on 7 points from 8 games; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Levante have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Deportivo La Coruna.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Espanyol.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Levante 0–0 Atletico Madrid.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 50% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Levante
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
- D3-3Sevilla12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
Atletico Madrid
- W1-0away to Espanyol17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
- W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
- W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
What these results say
- Levante did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Levante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid won every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Levante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Atletico Madrid
Chance to win the league · 11% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
- 31 January 2026Levante 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 8 November 2025Atletico Madrid 3–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 18 January 2023Levante 0–2 Atletico MadridCopa del Rey
- 16 February 2022Atletico Madrid 0–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 28 October 2021Levante 2–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 20 February 2021Atletico Madrid 0–2 LevanteLa Liga
Leading scorers: Levante and Atletico Madrid
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui31
- Iván Romero30
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena42
- J. David32
- Álex Grimaldo31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Levante carry a model rating of 6.79 against 7.15 for Atletico Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Levante and 1.91 for Atletico Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levante rate 1.00 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Madrid rate 1.37 and 0.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Levante a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Madrid 11.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Levante against 1.91 for Atletico Madrid. Levante's attack/defence rating is 1/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.75 for Atletico Madrid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Levante at home · Atletico Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Levante 8, Atletico Madrid 9.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 3 there.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Levante have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Levante
- at Celta Vigo8 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Elche22 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
- vs Racing Santander29 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
Atletico Madrid
- vs Bayern München3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- vs Barcelona8 Nov · La Ligawin 35%
- at Getafe22 Nov · La Ligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.