Leganes
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 1–0 Cordoba
The model makes it 41% Leganes, 29% draw, 30% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leganes 1.55, Cordoba 1.18.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leganes are 10th on 11 points from 7 games; Cordoba are 19th on 6 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Leganes have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Castellón.
- Cordoba have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Valladolid.
- Last 2 meetings: Cordoba 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Cordoba 2–1 Leganes.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leganes vs Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leganes at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Cordoba
Leganes
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
Cordoba
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026
- L1-3Granada CF30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leganes had two goals or fewer.
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Leganes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Cordoba
- 14 February 2026Cordoba 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 7 December 2025Leganes 0–0 CordobaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Cordoba
Leganes
- Naim García2 goals1 assist
Cordoba
- Percan2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leganes carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.41 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Leganes and 1.18 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leganes rate 0.55 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 0.75 and 1.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leganes a 0.1% chance of the title and Cordoba 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leganes the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Leganes against 1.18 for Cordoba. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.84 for Cordoba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leganes at home · Cordoba away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Leganes 7, Cordoba 7.
Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Leganes have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leganes
- vs Mallorca25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Valladolid1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- vs Albacete8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
Cordoba
- vs Eibar25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Celta de Vigo II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- vs AD Ceuta FC8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.