Las Palmas
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Las Palmas 1–2 Castellón
The model makes it 32% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 39% Castellón — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.26, Castellón 1.52.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Las Palmas are 11th on 10 points from 7 games; Castellón are top on 19 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Las Palmas have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Eibar.
- Castellón are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Leganes.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Las Palmas 1–1 Castellón.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Las Palmas vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Las Palmas vs Castellón
Las Palmas
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
Castellón
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón won every one of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 1 | Castellón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Castellón
- 21 February 2026Las Palmas 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 30 November 2025Castellón 1–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 27 February 2021Castellón 4–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 21 October 2020Las Palmas 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 17 December 2019Castellón 0–2 Las PalmasCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Castellón
Las Palmas
- T. Miyashiro2 goals2 assists
Castellón
- Ousmane Camara4 goals1 assist
- Israel Suero2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Las Palmas carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.77 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Las Palmas and 1.52 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Las Palmas rate 0.75 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.93 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Las Palmas a 1.2% chance of the title and Castellón 38.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Las Palmas against 1.52 for Castellón. Las Palmas's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.1 for Castellón.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Las Palmas at home · Castellón away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Las Palmas 7, Castellón 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Las Palmas
- vs Real Sociedad II25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- at Oviedo1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- vs Eldense8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
Castellón
- vs Sporting Gijon25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Burgos1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Eibar8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.