Sporting Gijon
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Gijon 1–0 Albacete
The model makes it 44% Sporting Gijon, 30% draw, 26% Albacete — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.48, Albacete 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sporting Gijon are 12th on 10 points from 7 games; Albacete are bottom on 1 point from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Sporting Gijon have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Oviedo.
- Albacete have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Girona.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Albacete 1–1 Sporting Gijon.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Albacete
Sporting Gijon
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
Albacete
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Castellón6 September 2026
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had two goals or fewer.
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Albacete
- 15 February 2026Albacete 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 28 September 2025Sporting Gijon 3–4 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 23 March 2025Sporting Gijon 0–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 27 October 2024Albacete 3–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 1 March 2024Sporting Gijon 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 22 October 2023Albacete 1–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.42 for Albacete. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Sporting Gijon and 0.90 for Albacete. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Gijon rate 0.68 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Albacete rate 0.60 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Gijon a 0.5% chance of the title and Albacete 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 0.90 for Albacete. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.42 for Albacete.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Gijon at home · Albacete away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sporting Gijon 7, Albacete 7.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Gijon
- at Castellón25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- at AD Ceuta FC1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Valladolid8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
Albacete
- vs Eldense25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Sabadell1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- at Leganes8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.