Real Sociedad II
vs
Almeria
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad II 1–2 Almeria
The model makes it 35% Real Sociedad II, 28% draw, 37% Almeria — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.50, Almeria 1.59.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Real Sociedad II and Almeria are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Real Sociedad II are 14th on 8 points from 7 games; Almeria are 3rd on 15 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Real Sociedad II have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to AD Ceuta FC.
- Almeria are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win away to Mallorca.
- Last 4 meetings: Almeria 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 March 2026, ended Almeria 5–1 Real Sociedad II.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almeria at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
Real Sociedad II
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
- D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
Almeria
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almeria won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almeria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
- 29 March 2026Almeria 5–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 29 August 2025Real Sociedad II 2–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 13 May 2022Real Sociedad II 0–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 21 October 2021Almeria 3–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Almeria
Real Sociedad II
- Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assist
Almeria
- Javi Muñoz2 goals2 assists
- Miguel de la Fuente2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Sociedad II carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.67 for Almeria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.59 for Almeria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad II rate 0.76 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almeria rate 0.90 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad II a 0.2% chance of the title and Almeria 11.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.59 for Almeria. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.29 for Almeria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Sociedad II at home · Almeria away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Real Sociedad II 7, Almeria 7.
Real Sociedad II score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Almeria have let in 1 there.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Real Sociedad II have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad II
- at Las Palmas25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Girona1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- at Sabadell8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Almeria
- vs Oviedo25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- at Eibar1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- at Girona8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.