Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 34% Shakhtar Donetsk, 28% draw, 38% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.53, AEK Athens FC 1.69.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 18th on 1 point from 1 game; AEK Athens FC are 16th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to LNZ Cherkasy.
- AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 3 (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lask Linz.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Shakhtar Donetsk
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
AEK Athens FC
- W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026
- W4-0Levski Sofia26 August 2026
- D0-0away to Levski Sofia18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
- 13 July 2023AEK Athens FC 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC
Shakhtar Donetsk
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
AEK Athens FC
- B. Varga2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.91 against 7.12 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.69 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 1.26 and 0.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 1.69 for AEK Athens FC. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.73 for AEK Athens FC.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · AEK Athens FC away
League matches only, this season — Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League, AEK Athens FC in the Super League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 7 in the Premier League, AEK Athens FC 5 in the Super League 1.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Kolos Kovalivka17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at Inter21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 17%
- vs Zorya Luhansk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- at Obolon'-Brovar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 66%
AEK Athens FC
- at Atromitos17 Oct · Super League 1win 52%
- at Manchester City20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- vs Panetolikos24 Oct · Super League 1win 63%
- at Panathinaikos31 Oct · Super League 1win 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.