Krylia Sovetov
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel
The model makes it 45% Krylia Sovetov, 29% draw, 26% Fakel — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.68, Fakel 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Krylia Sovetov are 9th on 11 points from 9 games; Fakel are bottom on 3 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Krylia Sovetov are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiv.
- Fakel have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Spartak Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: Fakel 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2025, ended Fakel 1–1 Krylia Sovetov.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krylia Sovetov at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Krylia Sovetov
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
Fakel
- L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
- 24 May 2025Fakel 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 11 August 2024Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FakelPremier League
- 25 April 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
- 2 September 2023Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 28 May 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
- 27 November 2022Krylya Sovetov 1–0 Fakel VoronezhCup
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Fakel
Krylia Sovetov
- A. Rahmanović3 goals
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.08 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.01 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.57 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.40 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Krylia Sovetov a 0.2% chance of the title and Fakel 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Krylia Sovetov the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 1.01 for Fakel. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.91 for Fakel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Krylia Sovetov at home · Fakel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Krylia Sovetov 9, Fakel 9.
Krylia Sovetov score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Fakel have let in 3 there.
Fakel score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Krylia Sovetov have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Krylia Sovetov
- at Rubin24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Zenit2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs FC Orenburg8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at FC Rostov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Fakel
- vs Rodina Moskva24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at Rubin31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Dynamo7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Akron21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.