Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 Akron
The model makes it 46% Dinamo Makhachkala, 27% draw, 27% Akron — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.98, Akron 1.27.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Dinamo Makhachkala are 7th on 12 points from 9 games; Akron are 13th on 8 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to CSKA Moscow.
- Akron are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Akhmat.
- Last 6 meetings: Akron 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Akron 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Makhachkala at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
Akron
- W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
- D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
- L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Akron | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
- 23 April 2026Akron 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 8 August 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
- 2 May 2025Akron 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 26 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
- 12 May 2024Akron 3–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFirst League
- 8 October 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 AkronFirst League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov5 goals
Akron
- Gilson Benchimol4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Makhachkala carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.09 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.27 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.53 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.52 and 2.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.27 for Akron. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.42 for Akron.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Makhachkala at home · Akron away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Makhachkala 9, Akron 9.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Akron have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Makhachkala
- at Zenit25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs FC Rostov1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at Baltika8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Spartak Moscow22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Akron
- vs Dynamo24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Baltika1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Spartak Moscow8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Fakel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.