Ujpest
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ujpest 2–1 Puskas Academy
The model makes it 38% Ujpest, 28% draw, 34% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ujpest 1.59, Puskas Academy 1.44.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Ujpest are 4th on 14 points from 8 games; Puskas Academy are 2nd on 15 points from 8 games — NB I.
- Ujpest are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Zalaegerszegi TE.
- Puskas Academy have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Budapest Honved.
- Last 6 meetings: Puskas Academy 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Puskas Academy 2–0 Ujpest.
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ujpest at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
Ujpest
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
Puskas Academy
- W3-1Budapest Honved18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE6 September 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Vasas22 August 2026
- W3-2Paks16 August 2026
What these results say
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
- Puskas Academy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puskas Academy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
- 25 April 2026Puskas Academy 2–0 UjpestNB I
- 31 January 2026Ujpest 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 4 October 2025Puskas Academy 0–0 UjpestNB I
- 9 March 2025Ujpest 1–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 2 November 2024Puskas Academy 1–1 UjpestNB I
- 28 July 2024Ujpest 1–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Puskas Academy
Ujpest
- A. Matko5 goals3 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals2 assists
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh3 goals1 assist
- P. Dárdai2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.49 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Ujpest and 1.44 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.74 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.62 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Puskas Academy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ujpest a 2.9% chance of the title and Puskas Academy 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ujpest against 1.44 for Puskas Academy. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.29 for Puskas Academy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ujpest at home · Puskas Academy away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ujpest 8, Puskas Academy 8.
Ujpest score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Puskas Academy have let in 1 there.
Puskas Academy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Ujpest have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ujpest
- at Gyori ETO FC24 Oct · NB Iwin 25%
- vs Nyiregyhaza31 Oct · NB Iwin 43%
- at Debreceni VSC7 Nov · NB Iwin 34%
- vs Kisvarda FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 43%
Puskas Academy
- vs Nyiregyhaza24 Oct · NB Iwin 43%
- vs Debreceni VSC31 Oct · NB Iwin 40%
- at Kisvarda FC7 Nov · NB Iwin 37%
- vs MTK Budapest21 Nov · NB Iwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.