Esenler Erokspor
vs
Mardin 1969
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Mardin 1969
The model makes it 37% Esenler Erokspor, 33% draw, 30% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.03 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 1.08, Mardin 1969 0.88.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Esenler Erokspor are 17th on 5 points from 8 games; Mardin 1969 are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Esenler Erokspor have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
- Mardin 1969 have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kayserispor.
- Last 2 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 February 2022, ended Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Mardin 1969.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esenler Erokspor at 37% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
Esenler Erokspor
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Bodrum FK3 September 2026
- L0-1Iğdır FK30 August 2026
Mardin 1969
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sivasspor2 September 2026
- D1-1Vanspor FK29 August 2026
What these results say
- Esenler Erokspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Esenler Erokspor | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
- 26 February 2022Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Mardin 19693. Lig - Group 3
- 13 October 2021Mardin 1969 1–1 Esenler Erokspor3. Lig - Group 3
Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Mardin 1969
- O. Kayode3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Esenler Erokspor carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.48 for Mardin 1969. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 0.88 for Mardin 1969. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esenler Erokspor rate 0.57 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mardin 1969 rate 0.52 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mardin 1969, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esenler Erokspor a 0.5% chance of the title and Mardin 1969 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esenler Erokspor the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor against 0.88 for Mardin 1969. Esenler Erokspor's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.16 for Mardin 1969.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esenler Erokspor at home · Mardin 1969 away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Esenler Erokspor 8, Mardin 1969 8.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Esenler Erokspor
- at Batman Petrolspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Keçiörengücü30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Muğlaspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
Mardin 1969
- vs Manisa F.K.26 Oct · 1. Ligwin 45%
- at İstanbulspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
- vs Batman Petrolspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.